JEI New Analysis of National Survey of Jewish Voters
A new analysis from the non-partisan Jewish Electorate Institute (JEI) indicates that Jewish voters could play a decisive role in determining control of Congress and the White House in the 2024 elections. Conducted by Population Mapping Consulting and Research alongside the Jewish Demography Project at the University of Miami, the September 2024 analysis reviews available data to calculate the influence of Jewish voters across all 435 Congressional districts and key swing states.
Jewish voters, who now comprise over 7.7 million Americans, are expected to have an outsized impact in several tossup districts and battleground states. The total Jewish population has grown from about 6 million in 1970 to over 7.7 million in 2024. With Jewish adults of voting age representing approximately 77% of the total Jewish population – and also routinely turning out in disproportionate numbers – their influence is expected to be particularly strong in key Senate and Presidential races.
Key Findings:
- High Voter Turnout: Jewish voters consistently turn out at some of the highest rates of any ethnic group, positioning them as pivotal in tight Senate, gubernatorial and House races with significant Jewish populations.
- Swing Districts: Key battleground Congressional districts such as NY-17 and NY-4, among the top ten target districts in the country, and with Jewish populations of 19% and 14.4% respectively, could be significantly impacted by Jewish voters in races with historically narrow margins. In 2020, these districts had only 332,000 and 360,000 total votes cast, respectively, for Congress.
- On average, nearly all US Congressional districts each have approximately 760,000 total residents.
- Impact on Swing States, where Jewish population is a notable percentage of overall population, the Jewish vote may also have substantial impact on key Senate and other statewide races:
- Pennsylvania: Nearly 350,000 Jews (in the state with the seventh-most Jewish residents as a percentage of its overall population) could influence this critical state’s 19 electoral votes and tight Senate race. In 2020, President Biden won the state by a margin of just 80,000 votes out of seven million cast.
- Arizona: With 130,000 Jewish voters (14th-most as a percentage of its overall vote), this group could be critical in the state’s Senate race and its 11 presidential electoral votes.
- Michigan: A state with 130,000 Jewish voters and 16 electoral votes may also see the Jewish electorate determine the outcome of its Senate race. Biden won Michigan by a slim margin of 10,000 votes in 2020.
- Other Key States:
- Maryland: With a quarter-of-a million Jews (4th largest percentage), Maryland’s Jewish voters could play a significant role in the state’s open Senate seat contest.
- Georgia: While the Jewish population in Georgia is only 1.3%, it still hosts 150,000 Jews, which could make the difference in tight Senate and Presidential races. Biden won the 2020 presidential by fewer than 12,000 votes.
- Ohio: With 177,000 Jews (18th largest percentage), Ohio’s Jewish electorate easily could have an impact in the state’s close Senate race.
- North Carolina: Although North Carolina has a smaller Jewish population of only 100,000, they could still help decide a contentious gubernatorial campaign.
Estimated Jewish Population by County, 2024:
This map shows the distribution of Jewish populations across U.S. counties, highlighting regions with the highest concentrations, particularly in urban areas like New York, Los Angeles, and Miami.
Jewish Population by State, 2024:
This table provides detailed data on the number of Jewish residents in each U.S. state, along with their percentage of the state’s total population and the overall U.S. Jewish population.
Jewish voters are not only concentrated in high-profile states but also in other key, swing Congressional districts. For example:
- NV-3: This district has 41,500 Jews, who may have a significant role in deciding the outcome.
- CA-27: With 30,000 Jewish adults, this district is another critical battleground.
- NJ-7: Home to more than 30,000 Jews, this district could also see a major influence from the Jewish electorate.
- NY-19: Hosting over 28,000 Jews, this district is another target in the upcoming elections.
Estimated Percent Jewish Population for Districts of the 119th U.S. Congress:
This map illustrates the percentage of Jewish residents in each Congressional district, with key states such as New York, New Jersey, and California standing out as having districts with significant Jewish populations.
“Jews turn out and vote in just about the highest percentages of any ethnic American bloc,” says JEI board chair Hope Eastman. “Combined with this year’s election map and its key races, Jews are positioned to play an even more disproportionate role than usual.”
Methodology:
This national survey was conducted by Population Mapping Consulting and Research and the Jewish Demography Project at the University of Miami in September, 2024 for the Jewish Electoral Institute. The survey identified Jewish populations across all 435 Congressional districts and Washington, DC, using innovative methodologies to account for previously undercounted Jewish populations in rural and suburban areas. The top target races were determined by the Cook Political Report and analysis from the New York Times.
