Harris’ share of Jewish vote declines, but still within recent historical range
(Washington) – A new non-partisan survey by the Jewish Electorate Institute (JEI) released Thursday shows very high levels of Jewish voters backing Kamala Harris and Democrats in the 2024 elections.
The poll, conducted for the Jewish Electorate Institute by The Mellman Group from October 30 to November 8 among more than 1000 respondents, reveals that 71 percent of Jewish voters cast their ballot for Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris, with a comparable. In comparison, only 26 percent voted for Donald Trump.
While many of the findings are consistent with other major polls from the election and exit polls, this JEI survey’s large sample size and methodology provided an especially unique, valuable and reliable measure of Jewish voter behavior. It also gave previously unreported insight into voters’ motivations in casting their ballot. The JEI poll evinces high rates of continuing support for Israel and mounting concerns about antisemitism, though these issues appear to have had limited impact on voting behavior.
Nearly all Jewish voters (87 percent) describe themselves as pro-Israel, with most supporting Harris. However, Trump won among those who identify most strongly with Israel, and who cited Israel as a key reason for their support. Harris voters cited a wider range of reasons for their support of the Vice President, with Israel and antisemitism ranking in the lower tier. Jewish voters continue to support Democratic candidates by a substantial margin, while Republicans have made modest gains in recent cycles.
Nonetheless, Democrats turned in their weakest performance among Jewish voters since 2012, with some polls indicating drop-offs in Jewish support ranging from four to 11 points over 2012 to 2024. Since 2012, Jewish support for the Democratic Presidential candidate has ranged in a narrow band from 69% to 71%. Republicans hit their recent high in 2012 but made slight gains in 2020 and 2024 after losing significant support in 2016. Using the averages for 2024, the margin for the Democratic candidate declined by six points since 2016. Comparing the three surveys of Jewish voters conducted by the same researcher in both 2020 and 2024 on a one-to-one basis, shows a decrease of 4 to 11 points in the Democratic margin in each poll since the last election.
The poll found considerable variation among Jewish voters’ behavior based on Jewish denominational self-identity. Reform (84 percent), Conservative movement (75 percent), and non-denominational/unaffiliated Jews (70 percent) strongly supported Harris, while Orthodox communities broke overwhelmingly for Trump (74 percent). Despite Harris having a higher favorability factor and being seen as stronger than antisemitism, Trump holds a slight edge in support for Israel, which was one of the top reasons to vote for him. Trump voters also cited support for him due to his opposition to Iran, as well as immigration (61 percent) and economic (55 percent).
Meanwhile, Harris voters cited Trump’s threat to democracy (80 percent) and her defense of abortion rights (63 percent) as the most important reasons to vote for her.No significant differences were found in the electoral behavior of women and men, with 72 percent of women and 70 percent of men supporting Harris. Variations among age groups were also evident: the 60+ demographic gave 74 percent of its votes to the Democratic nominee in this presidential election, compared to 70 percent of those 18-39. Higher synagogue attendance also appeared to correlate with reduced support for the Democratic candidate: 81 percent of Jews never attending services selected Harris, while 61 percent of those going more than once a month did so. Less than a quarter (22 percent) voting, in general, for almost all or mostly for the Republican Party, and 6 percent of voters report casting a split ticket.
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The Jewish Electorate Institute, a nonprofit 501(c)3 organization, promotes civic engagement and voter participation among American Jews and has been commissioning polls since its inception a decade ago.
The Mellman Group has been producing high-quality polling for over two decades. Mark Mellman is the past president of the American Association of Political Consultants. This analysis is based on a national post-election survey of 1,093 Jewish voters who cast ballots in the 2024 presidential election.
Interviews were conducted online by YouGov through their randomly selected panel during October 31-November 8, 2024. The sample utilized a matching method to reflect the Jewish electorate; screening for Jewish identity and having already voted. The margin of error is +/- 3% at the 95% level of confidence, and higher for subgroups.
See below for attached memo by The Mellman Group
